A LA heat wave arrives this weekend, with Santa Ana winds and very dry air across Los Angeles and Ventura counties. The National Weather Service office in Oxnard says temperatures peak on Sunday, Nov. 8, and stay in the 80s through at least Thursday, Nov. 12.
Then the pattern may flip. Forecasters see a possible storm between Friday, Nov. 13, and Monday, Nov. 16. All of this comes from the service’s forecast discussion issued at 1:33 p.m. on Friday, Nov. 6.
How hot will the LA heat wave get?
Coastal areas and coastal valleys could reach the mid-80s to around 90 degrees. Lower elevations should see the 80s, and an isolated 90 is possible. Because the air is so dry, nights will vary a lot. Lows drop into the 30s and 40s where winds stay light, but they hold in the upper 50s and 60s where the wind blows.
Heat advisories for the coast are a close call. Coastal areas have fewer ways to cool off, but the very low humidity may offset that. As of Nov. 6, forecasters had not settled the question.
A slow cooling trend starts Monday, Nov. 9. Still, highs remain in the 80s through at least Nov. 12, so the warm stretch lasts about a week.
Santa Ana winds and the Red Flag Warning
Offshore flow continues through the weekend. Gusty northeast winds blow mainly in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, and they are strongest in the LA mountains and along the Highway 14 and Highway 126 corridors. Most gusts stay below wind advisory levels. However, isolated gusts near 50 mph are possible in favored mountain spots.
The warmest and windiest conditions run from Friday through Sunday. A Red Flag Warning covers zones 288, 369, 370, 375 and 379 from 2 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturday, Nov. 7. In a Red Flag Warning, dry fuels and wind let a small spark grow quickly. We covered the warning and what it means for fire risk in an earlier report on the Red Flag Warning.
If you live near brush or a canyon, secure loose items and avoid outdoor burning. Also check local alerts before you drive through windy mountain passes.
Rain could follow, but models disagree
The forecast discussion mentions a possible storm anywhere from Friday, Nov. 13, to Monday, Nov. 16. The models vary on timing, and some show periods of heavy rain. So it is too early to plan around a specific day.
That matters because fire-damaged hillsides respond fast to heavy rain. Residents near burn scars should know where to pick up supplies. The county runs free sandbag events from Nov. 7 to Nov. 28, and we listed the sites in our guide to the LA County sandbag events. Our burn scar flooding report explains why even moderate storms can cause problems.
What to watch next
Check the forecast again on Sunday and Monday, because storm timing usually firms up only a few days ahead. The National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard office posts updates, and the full area forecast discussion shows the reasoning behind each change. For local news on weather, roads and safety, see our Los Angeles and California guide.
This is general information, not an emergency alert. In an emergency, follow instructions from local officials.